Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Department of Geography, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.
2 Department of geography,Tourism Research Center ,Najafabad beranch , Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.
3 Department of Geography. Tourism Research Center, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad. Iran.
4 Department of Geography, Tourism Research Center, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.
Abstract
Over the past few decades, the metropolis of Isfahan has accelerated the process of unsustainable development with its excessive physical development, industrial development, service costs, air pollution, marginalization, etc., which requires attention to development indicators and trends. It requires the axis in the field of sustainability. Prosperity has indicators that affect social stability as one of the pillars of sustainable development. Foresight is a process that leads to a sustainable outcome of planning practice. This research has analyzed the components of urban prosperity in the metropolis of Isfahan by using the cross-effects analysis technique as well as Mic Mac and Scenario Wizard software. First, by studying the available documents, the effective factors in urban prosperity were investigated and 66 components were extracted as indicators of urban prosperity using the Delphi method. The results of Mik Mak show that the metropolis of Isfahan has an unstable system. Finally, after examining the influence of these factors on each other and also on the future situation of Isfahan metropolis, 14 key factors were selected and 42 different possible situations were considered on the key factors in the scenario wizard software. The results show that 3 scenarios are more compatible in the future urban prosperity of Isfahan metropolis. The first scenario contains ideal conditions, scenario number 2, a relatively favorable scenario, and scenario number 3, a critical and unfavorable situation for the future urban prosperity of Isfahan metropolis, which makes this scenario more feasible in the future.
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