نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• مهین طهماس نژاد ¹
• حمید صابری ²
• احمد خادم الحسینی ³
• حجت مهکویی ³

¹ دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا، مرکز تحقیقات گردشگری، واحد نجف‌آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف‌آباد، ایران

² دانشیار گروه جغرافیا ، مرکز تحقیقات گردشگری، واحد نجف‌آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف‌آباد، ایران

³ دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، مرکز تحقیقات گردشگری،گروه جغرافیا، واحد نجف‌آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف‌آباد، ایران

چکیده

کلانشهر اصفهان طی چند دهه اخیر با توسعه‌ی بی‌رویه فیزیکی، توسعه صنایع، هزینه‌های خدمات، آلودگی هوا، حاشیه‌نشینی و... باعث تسریع در روند شکل‌گیری توسعه ناپایدار شده است که لزوم توجه به شاخص‌ها و ‏روندهای توسعه محور در حوزه پایداری را می‌طلبد. شکوفایی دارای شاخص‌هایی است‌ که بر‌ پایداری اجتماعی‌ به‌عنوان‌ یکی‌ از‌ ارکان‌ توسعه‌ پایدار تأثیرگذار ‌است. این پژوهش با استفاده از تکنیک تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و همچنین نرم‌افزار میک مک و سناریو ویزارد، مؤلفه‌های شکوفایی شهری در کلانشهر اصفهان را مورد تحلیل قرار داده است. نتایج میک مک نشان می‌دهد که کلانشهر اصفهان دارای سیستمی ناپایدار می‌باشد. درنهایت 14 عامل کلیدی انتخاب شدند و تعداد 42 وضعیت احتمالی مختلف بر عوامل کلیدی در نرم‌افزار سناریو ویزارد در نظر گرفته شد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد 3 سناریو احتمال وقوع بیشتری در توسعه‌ی شکوفایی آیندۀ اصفهان دارند. از بین این 3 سناریو، سناریوی اول شرایط ایده‌آل، سناریو شماره 2، سناریو نسبتاً مطلوب و سناریوی شماره 3، وضعیت بحرانی و نامطلوب را دربر دارد. از این میان، نرخ فقر بیشترین اثرگذاری را داشته که بیانگر اهمیت این عامل در شکوفایی شهر اصفهان می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• آینده‌پژوهی
• شکوفایی شهری
• میک مک
• سناریو ویزارد
• کلانشهر اصفهان

موضوعات

• برنامه ریزی توسعه شهری و منطقه ای

عنوان مقاله [English]

Urban Prosperity Scenario Planning (Case Study: Isfahan Metropolis)

نویسندگان [English]

• Mahin Tahmas Nezhad ¹
• Hamid Saberi ²
• Ahmad Khademolhoseiny ³
• Hojat Mahkoei ³

¹ PhD candidate of geography and urban planning, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran

² Associate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Tourism Research Center, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran

³ Associate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Tourism Research Center, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran

چکیده [English]

 
Over the past few decades, the metropolis of Isfahan has accelerated the process of unsustainable development with its excessive physical development, industrial development, service costs, air pollution, marginalization, etc., which requires attention to development indicators and trends. It requires the axis in the field of sustainability. Prosperity has indicators that affect social stability as one of the pillars of sustainable development. This research has analyzed the components of urban prosperity in the metropolis of Isfahan by using the cross-effects analysis technique as well as MicMac and Scenario Wizard software. The results of Mik Mak show that the metropolis of Isfahan has an unstable system. Finally, 14 key factors were selected and 42 different possible situations were considered on the key factors in the Scenario Wizard software. The results show that 3 scenarios are more likely to occur in the future development of Isfahan. Among these 3 scenarios, the first scenario contains ideal conditions, scenario number 2, a relatively favorable scenario, and scenario number 3, a critical and unfavorable situation. Among these, the poverty rate had the greatest effect, which shows the importance of this factor in the prosperity of Isfahan.
Keywords: Future Study, Urban Prosperity, MicMac, Scenario Wizard, Isfahan Metropolis.
 
 
Extended Abstract
Introduction
The metropolis of Isfahan faces significant challenges stemming from indiscriminate and uncoordinated development, rapid industrial expansion, increased immigration, and a range of associated issues, including construction on unsuitable land, rising service costs, escalating air pollution, neglect of structural improvement and renovation, and the proliferation of marginalized areas. If these trends persist, they will profoundly alter the city's physical landscape, environmental integrity, social fabric, and economic dynamics. Addressing these challenges necessitates a comprehensive reassessment of macro-management strategies and the integration of innovative planning tools. Futures research, as a forward-thinking approach, offers a process-oriented framework that aligns planning practices with sustainable development outcomes. The objective of this study is to identify the key drivers and critical factors influencing the development and prosperity of the Isfahan metropolis through a futures research perspective. The study further examines the interrelationships among these factors and their collective impact on Isfahan’s future trajectory, laying the groundwork for scenario development and subsequent strategic planning. The primary research question guiding this investigation is: What are the most optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the prosperity of the Isfahan metropolis? By addressing this question, the study seeks to provide actionable insights for formulating strategies, policies, and planning frameworks that facilitate the realization of desirable future scenarios.
Literature Review
A review of internal and external studies on urban prosperity reveals the following findings:
Ahadnejad et al. (2017) analyzed the urban development components of the Tabriz metropolis using the cross-effects analysis technique. Their findings indicate that Tabriz possesses an unstable urban system.
Jahani et al. (2021) concluded that Ardabil is in a relatively weak state concerning the urban prosperity index, particularly based on the quality-of-life indicator. Their study highlights that urban facilities are predominantly concentrated in the city center, resulting in a decline in the urban prosperity index from the central areas to the city's outskirts.
Arimah (2016) demonstrated that effective development and management of infrastructure can significantly enhance urban prosperity in African cities. Key benefits include facilitating economic growth, improving urban mobility, ensuring greater access to healthcare and education, enhancing safety and security, directing urban growth, raising environmental quality, improving housing conditions, and reducing intra-city disparities.
Narayanan et al. (2021) revealed that in Indian cities, income levels, public services, and housing have a significant positive impact on urban sustainability, whereas natural amenities and crime rates exhibit significant negative effects.
Although extensive research has been conducted on urban development both in Iran and internationally, limited attention has been devoted to scenario-based approaches for urban development. This gap underscores the necessity of employing futures research methodologies, particularly scenario planning, to explore the future trajectory of urban prosperity in the Isfahan metropolis. By addressing this critical issue, the current study seeks to provide valuable insights into metropolitan management strategies, thereby contributing to the enhancement of urban conditions and the elevation of the global urban prosperity index.
Methodology
This research is applied in purpose and adopts a descriptive-analytical approach for data collection and analysis. To gather information on the theoretical foundations and research literature, a documentary and library-based method was employed. Additionally, field methods were utilized to collect primary data for analyzing and addressing the main research question. The statistical population of the study consists of experts relevant to the research topic at all stages. To identify key drivers, in-depth interviews were conducted with subject-matter experts. The Delphi method was subsequently employed to extract indicators and variables influencing urban prosperity. The cross-effects matrix method was utilized to examine the interrelationships and mutual influences of the identified factors. Based on the results of this analysis and the identification of critical variables, scenarios were systematically developed to explore potential future outcomes.
Results and Discussion
This study employed a two-stage Delphi method to identify the primary drivers of urban development in Isfahan, building on prior research conducted in this domain. Through this process, 66 variables across six dimensions were identified as influential factors impacting the prosperity of Isfahan metropolis. Subsequently, the structural analysis method was applied using MicMac software to determine the principal and key drivers shaping the city's future trajectory. The distribution of variables influencing the development and prosperity of Isfahan revealed systemic instability. Ultimately, 14 critical factors were identified among the 66 examined variables using direct and indirect analysis methods. To develop potential scenarios, the descriptions of these 14 key drivers were structured into a matrix following the CIB coding rules and presented to 10 experts for evaluation. Based on their input, 42 possible states for the future of Isfahan were identified. Using the Scenario Wizard software, a total of 4,782,969 combined scenarios were generated, offering a comprehensive foundation for exploring future possibilities for the city's development.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates that three potential scenarios are most likely to shape the future urban prosperity of Isfahan. The first scenario represents an ideal, progressive state characterized by favorable conditions. The second scenario reflects an intermediate condition, with relatively positive yet less optimal outcomes. In contrast, the third scenario presents a critical and unfavorable situation, marked by significant challenges for the city's urban prosperity. Among these scenarios, the first scenario is identified as the most favorable, while the third scenario represents the least favorable outcome for Isfahan. This suggests that the realization of the third scenario, with its critical conditions, is the least likely in the future development of the city.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Future Study
• Urban Prosperity
• MicMac
• Scenario Wizard
• Isfahan Metropolis